Going to the polls

Almost done

The 2008 Federal Election is entering the home stretch. Although candidates will have the weekend to finish campaigning, today's the last day to make news.  For the rest of the weekend people will be focusing on their families and the Thanksgiving holiday and not paying attention to the news. The only thing left is the occaisonal attack ad.

And what has it come down to?

As the phrase coined by Bill Clinton's campaign stragegist goes: it's the economy, stupid.

The candidate who's convinced voters that he or she is best able to handle the issue will win. Unfortunately, I don't believe Albertans, Torontonians, Quebecers, 905ers and East Coasters have reached any consensus on who that is.

But given that the World Economic Forum recently said Canada has the world's soundest banking system, I can't help but think the economy will play to the Conservatives. And the anti-Dion "he's just too risky" attack ads will prove incredibly effective. The Star's Linda Diebel blogs about how effective the Conservatives' end game is here.

As for electionprediction.org, they still predict wins for all the incumbents in Durham save for Ajax-Pickering and Mark Holland, which is ranked a toss up. I'd bet on Holland winning, but I wouldn't double down on it.

So that's it for me and happy voting!

Here we go again

It looks like the recent economic bad news has tanked the Conervatives hopes of a majority government. They're generally polling in the low 30 per cent approval range as opposed to the high 30s or even low 40s. Meanwhile the Liberals can't crack that 30 per cent approval mark.

Looks like the big winners are the NDP who are making steady gains.

All this means that we're likely looking at another Conservative minority government and an election in a year or two. And it'll be a tough time to govern. Most economists don't predict economic recovery until 2010.

This is Stephen Harper's last best shot to form a majority. I think after a second minority government, Canadians will be looking for something new.

Liberals on the attack

In the lead up to the election, the Liberals are playing hardball. They've launched a series of attack ads comparing Stephen Harper to George Bush, who probably has a single digit approval rating in Canada. So far I've watched the one on the Iraq war and one on the economy.

Now the thing about the Iraq war is that there's been two federal elections since Harper called on Canada to join in. Perhaps the goal of the ad is to remind Canadians who didn't vote for Harper the last two times why they didn't vote for him.

And those people may avoid the Conservatives this time around too, but that's no guarantee they'll vote Liberal. Before launching this kind of attack ad, they should have bolstered the Liberals as the only alternative and so far, that really hasn't happened. In fact, with the emergence of the Green Party as a mainstream party, it seems voters have more choice than ever.

The great debate

So last night I had a TV dilemma. Do I watch the Canadian leaders debate and see what the people vying to be this country's prime minister (and Gilles Duceppe) envision for Canada? Or do I watch the super- hyped vice-presidential debate south of the border? They both started at 9 p.m.

Could I really ignore my country's politics for the sheer entertainment value of American politics?

As Sarah Palin would say, you betcha. And it sure lived up to the hype.

I've watched most of the Canadian debate subsequently via online videos, and it looks like it did little to change the status quo. First of all, it was killed by its format. There were simply too many people around the table and while there were lots of attacks, with most of them directed at Stephen Harper (though Dion got his fair share too), there was no gamechanger.

Everyone fired off their talking points, but it was the same rhetoric that we've heard before on the campaign trail.

I'm more convinced than ever that Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe did not belong at the table. Ms. May has to earn her way there by actually getting members of her party elected and she hasn't reached that threshold yet. Gilles Duceppe has no business at a federal debate since his party is a regional party. At a Quebec debate, sure. Not a federal one.

I've read the party platforms (where one exists and talking points where one doesn't) and have been following the campaign. We've all seen the various party leaders going at it on Parliament Hill and this debate is nothing new. In fact, it wasn't nearly as exciting as a raucous question period.

So when it comes to my debates, I'll take the American fireworks, any day.

Ajax-Pickering race tight

More and more the speculation around the newsroom is that the race in Ajax-Pickering is the one to watch in Durham.

As one colleague said, you never count a long-time councillor out, and Conservative Rick Johnson is certainly well known in the community.

At the same time, Liberal Mark Holland has been a popular MP and is considered a rising star in his party. Word on the street is he's not taking the situation for granted and campaigning hard.

It looks like others are picking up on it too, the Election Prediction Project changed the status of this riding from a likely Holland victory to "too close to call". Some interesting comments there from both Liberals and Conservatives on why they think their candidate will win.

What's interesting is the national media had tagged either Whitby-Oshawa or Oshawa as the ridings to watch in Durham. In the former, the finance minsiter is facing off against a parachuted-in single-issue candidate (income trusts). In Oshawa, it's once again an NDPer, this time it's GM union guy Mike Shields, versus Conservative incumbent Colin Carrie.

I have a co-worker in Oshawa who thinks Mr. Shields is going to take it. I'm a bit more cynical. I think given the sweet retirement deals some of those laid off GM workers recieved, the anger in the community about the layoffs has waned. As well, I expect the Liberals and the Greens to cut into the NDP vote more than the Conservative vote. I'm certain enough that I have a cup of Tim's riding on it.

As for Whitby-Oshawa, the Liberal candidate doesn't have the local ties in the community to make a real go of it.

But hey, this is all speculation and we'll see what happens come election night.

Harper Girls

When Prime Minister Stephen Harper visited Ajax on Saturday, he was greeted by a cheering section of young Conservatives bearing signs like "I <3 Harper" and at least two "I have a crush on Harper" signs. The latter is in the same vein as the Obama Girl stuff in the United States, but with teenaged girls waving the signs about Harper, it just seemed kinda odd. Implausible, mostly. When the crowd started chanting "Harper", the cheering crew got them chanting "Stephen" instead.

Other observations from the rally: there was some speculation among the local media about what Mr. Harper's entrance song would be. Turned out to be 'Better Now' by Collective Soul.

Only a small portion of the signs hoisted were for local candidate Rick Johnson. Supporters for other Conservatives in nearby ridings, including George Khouri (Pickering-Scarborough East), Bev Oda (Durham), Colin Carrie (Oshawa), Jake Karns (Willowdale), Roxanne James (Scarborough Centre) and a couple more.

On the way in to the Ajax Convention Centre, dozens of signs were posted along the road for all of the candidates listed above, with many just centimetres in front of those by local Liberal incumbent Mark Holland, blocking his name. However, most of them disappeared after the rally, leaving the boulevard as red as it started. I wonder if that's indicative of what'll happen to the riding after the election.

Holland in trouble?

Headlines like this can't be an encouraging sign for the Liberals: Liberals already musing about potential leaders

Listed among potential candidates for a leadership run is Ajax-Pickering MP Mark Holland. But a visit by the Prime Minister to Ajax on Saturday would seem to indicate that the Conservatives have hopes for winning that riding. Ajax-Pickering is the last riding bleeding red from the 416 and Conservatives are looking to make suburban inroads, it's a logical choice. Though red right now, parts of Ajax have been represented provincially by prominent Progressive Conservatives Jim Flaherty and Janet Ecker in the past.

Which means if Mr. Holland has any such leadership hopes, he may want to put them on hold pending the outcome of this election.

As to the broader campaign, it seems the question now isn't whether the Conservatives can hang on to the goverment, but rather whether they can pull off a majority government.

My guess at this point is close, but not quite.

Locally, the Election Prediction Project now calls Oshawa for the Conservatives.

A dismal record

When it comes to women in parliament, Canada is ranked 51st in the world. Among the countries with proportionally more women in parliament are Iraq, Afghanistan and a slew of developing nations.

According to this report, Stephane Dion has made good on his promise to run a woman in at least a third of ridings, with the Liberals fielding 113 female candidates in 307 ridings. This means 36.9 per cent of Liberal candidates are women.  The NDP is second with 104 women vying for seats in all 308 ridings, or 33.8 per cent. The Conservatives are running 63 or 20.5 per cent and the Bloc are running 21 in Quebec's 75 ridings. The Greens are running 87 women.

A larger proportion of candidates are women among the Conservatives and Liberals than during the last election, the NDP is about the same.

Overall, in Durham we're behind the national trend towards more women.

No riding has more than one female candidate. And in the six ridings, no party has more than one female candidate running. If we use a very generous definition of winnable, say the party that came in second place in 2006 was within 25 per cent of the winner in vote total, only one riding is winnable for women. Conservative and cabinet minister Bev Oda will likely take the Durham Riding.

Liberal Marlene White has an outside chance in Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock, but her party got 40 per cent fewer votes in the 2006 election and 20 per cent fewer votes in 2004. A Liberal did hold that riding during the Chretien years, but it has been blue since the right united.

A look at the women running in Durham's six ridings:

Pickering-Scarborough East
Number of candidates: 6
Female candidates: Andrea Moffatt (NDP)
Winnable for a woman: No

Ajax-Pickering
Number of candidates: 6
Female candidates: Stephanie Wilson (Libertarian)
Winnable for a woman: No

Whitby-Oshawa
Number of candidates: 5
Female candidates: Yvonne Forbes (Christian Heritage)
Winnable for a woman: No

Oshawa
Number of candidates: 7
Female candidates: Pat Gostlin (Green)
Winnable for a woman: No

Durham
Number of candidates: 5
Female candidates: Bev Oda (Conservative)
Winnable for a woman: Yes

Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock
Number of candidates: 5
Female candidates: Marlene White (Liberal)
Winnable for a woman: No

Leadership

So what exactly does the leadership debate mean during this federal election? In a poll on our website, about a fifth of respondants list leadership as their most important issue of the campaign.

But what makes a good leader? Is it stage presence?  Policy choices? Or the ability to attack his opponents? If it's the latter, Stephen Harper wins, hands down.

A sampling of press releases attacking Stephane Dion:

Stéphane Dion's "triple threat" to Canadian families:  An unprecedented risk to our pocketbooks (complete with photoshopped pic)

Liberals dump Stéphane Dion from green shift ad

Who does Stéphane Dion turn to in uncertain economic times?  Bob Rae! (sub-headline: Dion Leans on the Politician with Worst Economic Record in Ontario Since the Great Depression ... and again with the photoshopping)

And on it goes. But at least those crticisms are somewhat related to politics. From notaleader.ca we learn the following useful tidbits about Stephane Dion:

• He named a turtle Leon Trotsky after the Russian communist
• He once taught a parrot to say "ideology"
• As a professor, he left Moncton for Montreal because "it lacked a certain je ne sais quoi"

The facebook spoof "Dionbook", which is now removed from the notaleader site but lives on in Google cache, listed Dion's groups as:

• Let's bring the Taliban to Canada
• I eat my hot dog with a fork and knife
• Bob Rae was an amazing Premier
• Hands up if you want to invade Pakistan
• I named my dog after a wealth redistribution treaty

Which is not to say the other leaders don't attack each other or Mr. Harper, but exactly what kind of leader allows his party to engage in this type of juvenile BS?

Staying on message

There’s a bit of controversy about a recently announced $1.9 billion commitment from the federal government to extend funding for existing housing and homelessness programs. The funding was set to expire next March.

In an article posted to the Globe and Mail’s website on Sept. 17:

“This is only a re-announcement of an old announcement,” said Liberal spokesman Jean-Francois Del Torchio.

Then in a Globe and Mail article dated  Sept. 19:

Liberal finance critic John McCallum said it’s duplicitous of the Tories to hand out major disbursements while at the same time attacking opposition parties for promising too much to voters this campaign.

“This shows the hypocrisy of Stephen Harper. On the one hand he’s boasting about his modest spending and at the same time announcing generous expenditures,” he said.

Amazing how things can change in a couple of days.